## The curve, measured


These are the numbers the forecast extrapolates from. Each is a measurement with a date. The last column is my extrapolation, not a published forecast.

| Quantity | Measured | Measured rate | Where the rate puts it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Task horizon (METR 50% success, the length of task a model completes half the time) | ~17.4 hours, Claude Mythos Preview, tested Mar 2026. METR marks results above 16 h as unreliable. | Doubling every 130.8 days (models since 2023); every 88.6 days (models since 2024). Measured Jan 2026. | Jun 2027: ~190 h (one working month) at the slow rate, ~640 h (four months) at the fast rate. Jun 2029: multi-year tasks at either rate, beyond what the benchmark can measure. |
| Frontier training compute | Grok 4 ~5e26 FLOP (largest published estimate, 2025). No public estimate for any 2026 frontier model. | 5x per year since 2020 (Epoch AI, 90% CI 4 to 6x), doubling every ~5.2 months. | Mid 2027: ~1e28 FLOP if sustained. The binding limit is power, below. |
| Largest single AI data center (IT power) | 946 MW, xAI Colossus 2, Oct 2026. Stargate: ~0.3 GW running of ~9.3 GW planned. | Largest-facility compute growing ~3.3x per year (doubling every ~7 months). | ~1.9 GW by mid 2027, ~3.8 GW by end 2027, ~6 GW by mid 2028. The planned 9.3 GW Stargate build is on the curve only if it lands by 2029. |
| Global data-center electricity | 788 TWh in 2025 (+19.7% on 2024); US 312.6 TWh (39.7%). | +19.7% per year. | ~945 TWh in 2026, ~1,130 TWh in 2027, ~1,350 TWh in 2028. |
| Nvidia data-center revenue | $89.0B in the quarter to 26 Jul 2026 (+117% on a year earlier); Q3 guidance $108B. | Roughly doubling year on year. | A ~$430B annual run rate by the Jul 2027 quarter if the rate holds; the Saturn passes of March 2027 (below) are where the forecast expects it not to. |
| Anthropic annualized revenue | $9B (end 2025), $47B (May 2026), $65B+ (end Jul 2026). | About 7x in seven months. | Cannot hold; even one more halving of the rate gives ~$150B by mid 2027. |
| OpenAI annualized revenue | ~$50B told to investors (Sep 2026, Reuters/FT); $70B by another count that includes cloud-partner sales. | ~2.5x in nine months. | ~$90 to $120B by mid 2027 at the measured rate. |
| Tokens processed (Google) | 3.2 quadrillion per month (May 2026) from 480 trillion (2025) and 9.7 trillion (2024). | ~6.7x per year. | ~20 quadrillion per month by mid 2027. |
| Big-four 2026 capital spending (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) | $720 to 745B guided for calendar 2026. US AI investment $581B, 1.8% of US GDP (Goldman measurement, Aug 2026). | Hyperscaler capex went from 0.3% of GDP (2019) to 1.4% (2025). | The collision point: capex at ~2 to 2.5% of GDP in 2027 against a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% (below). |
| AI-attributed US job cuts | 112,713 in Jan to Jul 2026, 24% of all announced cuts; 33% of July's. | Share rising month on month. | AI becomes the single largest stated cause of US layoffs for a full calendar year in 2027. |
| Youth unemployment | China 16 to 24 (excluding students) 18.9% (Aug 2026); US 16 to 24 9.9% (Sep 2026); UK 16 to 24 14.4% (to Jul 2026). US recent graduates 5.6% (Mar 2026). | China: 14.9% (Jun) to 18.9% (Aug) in two months. | The social pressure curve; see the Mars-in-Virgo entries of early 2027. |
| Humanoid robot shipments | ~19,100 in H1 2026 (+272% on a year earlier), 97% from Chinese makers. | ~3.7x per year. | ~60,000 for 2026; ~200,000 in 2027; ~700,000 in 2028 if sustained. |
| AI companions | 27% of US adult internet users report significant emotional or social interaction with AI (May 2026 survey, n=4,031). | No earlier comparable point. | The Pluto-in-Aquarius social curve. |
| Code written by AI | 26.9% of production code across 4.2M developers (Nov 2025 to Feb 2026), from 22% the prior quarter. | ~+5 points per quarter. | Past 50% in 2027. |
| Global temperature | Sep 2026 at 1.63°C above pre-industrial; two straight months above 1.5°C; record Niño 3.4 reading 29.70°C; 2026 on track for 1.47°C. | Strong El Niño building into 2027. | 2027 warmest year on record (prediction below). |

**The macro counter-curve, also measured (15 Oct 2026).** US CPI 3.7% (Sep), the Fed hiked to 3.75 to 4.00% on 16 Sep (first hike since 2023), the 10-year Treasury at 5.09% after touching 5.37% on 7 to 8 Oct (highest since 2002), 30-year mortgage 7.49%, Brent ~$105 with Hormuz transits at ~7.4m barrels a day against ~20m before the war, Shiller CAPE 41.6 (the Dec 1999 peak was 44.2), the S&P 500 at 7,695 after a record 7,819 on 6 Oct, the Nikkei down 4.9% in one day on 15 Oct on doubts about AI investment, US large-company bankruptcies at a 16-year first-half high, the FAO food index at its highest since 2022, ECB and BoJ also hiking, the IMF's October numbers at 3.1% world growth for 2026 with a "war-driven energy shock" named as the drag. This is the first time the AI curve and a rate-hiking cycle have run head-on into each other. The sky for March 2027 is where the forecast expects the collision to show.

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