The dated claims — original ledger

How the predictions are doing

Dated assessments are kept separately from the original predictions. The 216 current claims and 39 version 12 predictions are scored separately. The archived version 12 article and score panel remain frozen.

Claude proposes results after each stated window closes. A person checks a proposal before it counts. Pass counts 1, partial counts half, fail counts 0; untested, inconclusive, proposed and disputed results are excluded. Original probabilities are unchanged subjective estimates, not calibrated probabilities.

Current ledger

Accuracy so far: no confirmed results. 0 pass, 0 partial, 0 fail; 216 untested, 0 inconclusive, 0 awaiting review or disputed.

Prediction status (216)

Claim 1 (25 Oct 2026): Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's runoff Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 2 (27 Oct 2026): No Israeli bloc reaches 61 on election night Stated chance: 70%. Untested
Claim 3 (by 31 Dec 2026): Netanyahu does not lead the next Israeli government Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 4 (by 15 Nov 2026): No direct Saudi-Iran exchange of fire Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 5 (Oct 2026): S&P 500 closes October below 7,819 Stated chance: 80%. Untested
Claim 6 (31 Dec 2026): S&P 500 ends 2026 below 7,819 Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 7 (by 31 Dec 2026): No published METR 50% horizon above 24 h Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 8 (3 Nov 2026): Democrats take the US House Stated chance: 80%. Untested
Claim 9 (3 Nov 2026): Senate stays Republican Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 10 (29 Nov 2026): PP wins most seats in Spain and forms government with Vox Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 11 (Nov 2026): A G20 government or state signs a multi-GW dedicated AI power deal Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 12 (31 Dec 2026): US blockade of Iran still in force Stated chance: 70%. Untested
Claim 13 (31 Dec 2026): Fed policy rate at least 4.00 to 4.25% Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 14 (after 11 Dec 2026): A US appropriations lapse of at least one day Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 15 (by 15 Dec 2026): Security Council recommends a Secretary-General; Grynspan Stated chance: 75% / 55%. Untested
Claim 16 (31 Dec 2026): UNIFIL lapses with no successor force on the ground Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 17 (1 Dec 2026 to 31 Jan 2027): Bitcoin trades below $70,000 Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 18 (10 Dec 2026 to 31 Jan 2027): A top-four lab announces a model running a full working week autonomously Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 19 (10 Jan to 1 Apr 2027): A national AI-layoff strike in a G20 country Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 20 (Jan to Sep 2027): A G7 regulator approves autonomous AI diagnosis or triage Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 21 (16 Jan 2027): Tinubu wins Nigeria; result challenged in court Stated chance: 60% / 80%. Untested
Claim 22 (by 31 Dec 2027): Merz coalition does not survive in present form Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 23 (by 30 Jun 2027): UK announces a customs-union negotiation mandate Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 24 (late Jan 2027): Big-four 2027 capex guided above $900B aggregate Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 25 (6 Feb to 2 May 2027): An EU member proposes to leave/suspend a treaty obligation, or the AI Omnibus timetable is reopened Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 26 (Feb to Apr 2027): M7.5+ quake or cabinet-level crisis in Chile or Argentina Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 27 (21 Feb to 30 Jun 2027): Apple announces a strategic reset read as an admission of being behind Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 28 (Q1 2027): An export-control or supply event halts a material share of lithography/packaging for a month Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 29 (1 Feb to 30 Apr 2027): A leadership announcement from Tehran (Mojtaba appears, or formal transfer of authority) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 30 (Feb to May 2027): Frontier-grade weights (open or stolen) become public Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 31 (15 Feb to 30 Apr 2027): S&P 500 at least 15% below its record; Nasdaq at least 20% below Stated chance: 55% / 55%. Untested
Claim 32 (1 Mar to 31 May 2027): Nvidia market cap below $4T at some point Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 33 (1 Mar to 30 Apr 2027): A US executive order on AI/power/trade enjoined by a federal court within 30 days Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 34 (Q1 to Q2 2027): US announces a formal force-posture reduction in Europe Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 35 (1 Mar to 30 Jun 2027): OpenAI restates revenue or is disputed in a filing Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 36 (H1 2027): Bitcoin below $60,000 Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 37 (2 May 2027): Le Pen wins the French presidency Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 38 (Q2 2027): Canada announces a dated trade re-alignment strategy Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 39 (19 Apr 2027 to 31 Dec 2028): Anthropic changes its corporate or governance structure in a way that transfers control Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 40 (Q2 2027): Argentina devaluation step above 15% in a month or IMF renegotiation Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 41 (Apr to Jul 2027): A lab publishes a measured horizon above 100 hours Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 42 (11 May to 31 Jul 2027): A lab, government or standards body formally designates a released system as AGI or equivalent Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 43 (1 May to 30 Jun 2027): Mass public event or security collapse in a Nigerian state capital Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 44 (May to Aug 2027): India named host/lead of a new AI body or signs a US compute treaty Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 45 (May to Jun 2027): Israel's new government faces no-confidence or rupture Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 46 (31 May 2027): Brent above $90 Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 47 (by 31 Jul 2027): A deployed system has an independently measured 50% horizon above 160 h Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 48 (23 Jun 2027 to 10 Apr 2028): Public uprising or change at the top of the Iranian state Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 49 (20 Jun to 15 Jul 2027): Sudden change in Saudi oil policy or Aramco ownership; Brent moves >20% in four weeks Stated chance: 55% / 55%. Untested
Claim 50 (2027): UN adopts no binding frontier-AI instrument Stated chance: 80%. Untested
Claim 51 (by 31 Dec 2027): EU Annex III obligations not deferred again Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 52 (30 Jun 2027): S&P 500 above its 1 Mar 2027 level Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 53 (25 Jul 2027 to 31 May 2028): OpenAI completes its IPO or undergoes a structural rupture; IPO prices in window Stated chance: 65% / 55%. Untested
Claim 54 (Jul 2027 to May 2028): ChatGPT brand retired or replaced as primary consumer product Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 55 (Jul 2027 to Mar 2028): A flagship model publicly stated not to be a standard transformer Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 56 (Jul to Aug 2027): A formal US national AI declaration on the scale of a national program Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 57 (Jul to Aug 2027): Monsoon or heat disaster >1,000 deaths in India or Pakistan Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 58 (by 31 Jul 2027): Starship's first full orbital flight with payload deployment; Artemis III does not fly in 2027 Stated chance: 65% / 80%. Untested
Claim 59 (Aug to Oct 2027): Chinese humanoid industry's first shock (export ban, recall, or listing collapse) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 60 (25 Aug to 10 Sep 2027): Major strike on Gulf energy/shipping or Saudi-Iran exchange Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 61 (2027): Brent above $130 at some point Stated chance: 30%. Untested
Claim 62 (around 2 Aug 2027): Eclipse-path disaster or security event (Spain heat >5,000 deaths, or North Africa incident) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 63 (Aug to Dec 2027): Google forced into a structural change by court, regulator or government Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 64 (within a year of 2 Aug 2027): Change of government or succession announcement in Morocco, Egypt or Saudi Arabia Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 65 (Aug 2027 to Mar 2028): Bitcoin drawdown from 2026 high exceeds 50% Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 66 (2027): 2027 global temperature beats 2024's record Stated chance: 70%. Untested
Claim 67 (summer 2027): European excess deaths above 20,000 Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 68 (Sep 2027 to Mar 2028): A G7 health system contracts autonomous AI triage at national scale Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 69 (same window): First mass-casualty error attributed to an autonomous medical system Stated chance: 25%. Untested
Claim 70 (by 31 Dec 2027): A collective agreement with AI revenue-sharing or displacement pay covering 100,000+ workers Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 71 (1 Sep to 31 Dec 2027): A signed agreement reopens Hormuz to regular transit Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 72 (Aug to Sep 2027): Kenya's election result disputed with court challenge and street protest Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 73 (by 31 Dec 2027): Takaichi faces a leadership challenge or calls a snap election Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 74 (20 Oct to 15 Nov 2027): AI-agent cyber incident disables national critical infrastructure >24 h in a G20 country Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 75 (by mid 2028): Mandatory agent-identity and kill-switch rules become law somewhere Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 76 (24 Oct 2027): La Libertad Avanza loses Argentina's presidency Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 77 (Q4 2027): German coalition collapse or confidence vote Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 78 (Q4 2027): A major stablecoin or exchange failure Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 79 (Q4 2027): S&P 500 does not fall below its April 2027 low Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 80 (Nov 2027 to Mar 2028): US-China formal agreement on frontier-model notification or testing Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 81 (by 31 Dec 2027): Three G20 governments outside the US and China fund sovereign frontier programs above $10B each Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 82 (by 30 Nov 2028): PP-Vox government survives its first year Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 83 (Q4 2027 to Q1 2028): Chilean lithium or copper nationalization-scale deal or price event Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 84 (31 Dec 2027): A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire holding at least 30 days exists Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 85 (Q4 2027 to Q1 2028): China announces a national birth subsidy or a retirement-age change beyond 2025's Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 86 (by 31 Mar 2028): Imamoglu convicted or formally barred Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 87 (31 Dec 2027): S&P 500 ends 2027 above its 2026 close; 10-year yield below 4.5% Stated chance: 55% / 45%. Untested
Claim 88 (by 31 Mar 2028): Majority of measured traffic to a top-ten commerce or search property is agent-initiated Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 89 (Jan 2028 to Dec 2029): A change in the Federal Reserve's structure or independence Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 90 (calendar 2028): Global data-center construction starts exceed 20 GW; a US state enacts a construction moratorium Stated chance: 65% / 55%. Untested
Claim 91 (2028): Ethereum governance crisis or market-splitting fork Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 92 (Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2028): Frontier token price falls more than 90% Stated chance: 75%. Untested
Claim 93 (by Dec 2028): US services inflation ex shelter and energy below 2% y/y Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 94 (Q2 2028): A G7 court or legislature rules on ownership of autonomous outputs with a date certain Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 95 (by mid 2028): AI-written share of production code passes two-thirds Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 96 (Jun 2028 to Mar 2029): Digital euro live for the public, or an emergency ECB program Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 97 (15 Jun to 15 Jul 2028): A major war-risk event (Taiwan blockade exercise, NATO border incident, or Gulf strike) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 98 (2028): A frontier lab found by a regulator to have misrepresented a capability or safety result Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 99 (by 30 Sep 2028): Humanoid robots in paid work in >10,000 non-Chinese workplaces Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 100 (H2 2028): Autonomous robot or drone-swarm incident killing more than ten people Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 101 (within 6 months of 22 Jul 2028): A government falls or a PM resigns in Australia or New Zealand Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 102 (Q3 to Q4 2028): A 2026 to 2027 trade or security treaty formally reopened Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 103 (30 days around 22 Jul 2028): Bitcoin moves more than 30% Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 104 (Nov 2028): US presidential result not conceded within 72 h; electors litigated to SCOTUS Stated chance: 55% / 50%. Untested
Claim 105 (31 Dec 2028): Apple+Microsoft+Nvidia+Alphabet combined cap above $18.5T Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 106 (2029): Formal end-of-life for a core open-web protocol or governance Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 107 (by 31 Mar 2029): National-scope debt relief or basic-income program enacted in a G20 country Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 108 (3 Feb to 30 Jun 2029): Confirmed state-actor theft of frontier weights Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 109 (by 30 Jun 2029): A multilateral frontier-AI agreement with verification signed by US, China and EU Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 110 (2029): Security Council structure changed, or a founding member's funding ends entirely Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 111 (2029): Amazon break-up, AWS divestiture, or top leadership change Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 112 (2029): Change of Israeli prime minister Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 113 (H1 2029): Branch-versus-branch constitutional confrontation resolved by SCOTUS Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 114 (12 Jun 2029 to 12 Jun 2030): SpaceX announces a result acknowledged as beyond every other system, or is restructured Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 115 (1 May 2029 to 31 Mar 2030): Nasdaq at least 30% below its prior record at some close Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 116 (by 31 Dec 2029): A mass spiritual movement (>10M) around AI, the end of work, or a sky event Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 117 (H2 2029): Coup attempt or mutiny in Nigeria; leadership shock in China Stated chance: 35% / 35%. Untested
Claim 118 (May to Dec 2029): Meta control structure changes Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 119 (Q3 2029): Legacy financial or government system failure >48 h Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 120 (2029): UK general election or EU referendum; referendum specifically Stated chance: 60% / 35%. Untested
Claim 121 (Sep to Oct 2029): Sharpest monthly equity drawdown of the 2029 to 2030 cycle Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 122 (H2 2029): Change of government or constitutional crisis in Indonesia Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 123 (by 31 Dec 2030): Musk no longer CEO of at least one of Tesla and SpaceX Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 124 (Dec 2029 to Dec 2030): Federal Reserve Act amended, or Fed governance changed by statute or ruling Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 125 (Q4 2029 to Q2 2030): Confirmed fundamental-physics result produced primarily by an autonomous system Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 126 (within 6 months of 20 Dec 2029): Change of head of government in at least one of Canada, France, Turkey Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 127 (2030): Japanese Article 9 vote scheduled or held Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 128 (Oct 2030 IMF figure): 2030 global growth below 2.5% Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 129 (by 31 Dec 2030): Binding compute-threshold licensing with inspection in force in two of US, China, EU Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 130 (2030 to 2031): Eurozone monetary framework formally changed Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 131 (by 2031): Human-made/human-taught services premium measurable in a G7 country's statistics Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 132 (2030 to 2031): Aramco dividend cut or ownership changed; oil demand peak dated to 2026 or 2027 Stated chance: 50% / 55%. Untested
Claim 133 (by end 2031): A non-transformer family holds the top of every major measurement Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 134 (Jun 2030 to Apr 2031): OpenAI's identity overturned (merger, state arrangement, or dissolution) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 135 (2030): A religious body or schism >1M members around machine intelligence or its rejection Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 136 (within a year of 25 Nov 2030): Change of government in South Africa or Australia Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 137 (2031): A standard-model-changing result with an autonomous system as principal discoverer Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 138 (2031): Record year for hand-made and artisan sales on major platforms Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 139 (by end 2032): Two G7 states hold Bitcoin as reserve by statute, or ban it as payment Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 140 (Q4 2031): The Binding's negotiating text published in draft Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 141 (2031): India announces a world-largest-class frontier result or facility; India-Pakistan exchange Stated chance: 60% / 35%. Untested
Claim 142 (Jul 2031 to Dec 2032): Oracle acquired, restructured in bankruptcy, or broken up Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 143 (1 Jun to 31 Aug 2032): A binding instrument treating a frontier system as a legal party signed or in force Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 144 (Aug 2032 to 2039): First human birth from in-vitro gametogenesis; a G20 state legalizes it Stated chance: 60% / 50%. Untested
Claim 145 (2032 data): South Korea's fertility rate above 1.0 Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 146 (by end 2034): Meta's 2004 chart ends Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 147 (by end 2033): Nvidia's share of frontier training compute below 50% Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 148 (2032 to 2033): State restructuring of Alibaba Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 149 (by end 2033): US CBDC launched, or Fed structure replaced by statute Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 150 (by 2035): India among the three largest economies (IMF nominal); hosts a leading non-Western lab Stated chance: 50% / 55%. Untested
Claim 151 (Oct 2032 to Jun 2034): Change of head of state in Russia Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 152 (2033): Change of government and constitutional vote in Japan Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 153 (2033): Change of chancellor or federal election in Germany Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 154 (by end 2033): A single network or protocol used by more than half of humanity Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 155 (1 Jun 2033 to 30 Jun 2034): At least one of the US and China has a new head of state or government; both Stated chance: 65% / 40%. Untested
Claim 156 (by 2034): UK rejoins the customs union or single market by treaty in force Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 157 (by 2035): WTO replaced, merged or suspended as trade arbiter Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 158 (within 18 months of 20 Mar 2034): Three governments on the eclipse path change by force or crisis Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 159 (by 2035): Tesla's founding structure ends Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 160 (31 Dec 2034): Nvidia not the world's most valuable company Stated chance: 65%. Untested
Claim 161 (2035 data): Largest single-year rise in US religious affiliation on record Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 162 (by end 2036): A declared movement >100M adherents around an AI-mediated revelation Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 163 (by end 2037): Two of Apple, ASML, Microsoft, Nvidia no longer independent Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 164 (by 2037): Nasdaq >90% autonomous volume and merged or re-chartered Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 165 (within a year of 2 Sep 2035): Leadership change in China, N. Korea, S. Korea or Japan; Beijing specifically Stated chance: 70% / 35%. Untested
Claim 166 (2035 to 2036): A protocol-level break or demonstrated attack on Bitcoin's security Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 167 (Aug 2035 to Dec 2037): US constitutional convention called, or executive amendment passes Congress Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 168 (by 31 Aug 2036): A G7 state entrenches civilian control of frontier systems (a) or suffers an unconstitutional transfer of power (b) Stated chance: 55% (35% a, 30% b). Untested
Claim 169 (by Aug 2037): If Meta still exists under its 2004 chart on 7 Aug 2036, it does not by Aug 2037 Stated chance: 70% cond.. Untested
Claim 170 (2035 to 2037): EU treaty re-founded, or a member exits Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 171 (2036 to 2037): Change of president in Indonesia Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 172 (2036 to 2038): Constitutional crisis or change of form of government in India Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 173 (2037 to 2038): Personhood versus property of the new minds is the defining divide in three G7 elections Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 174 (by end 2038): Google's search business separated from its AI business Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 175 (by end 2038): Mandatory licensing of medical agents in force in the EU and US Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 176 (by end 2039): An age-related decline reversal approved; artificial wombs to term; household humanoids in >10% of homes in a G20 country Stated chance: 50% / 40% / 45%. Untested
Claim 177 (by end 2040): Dollar below 50% of COFER reserves; a G7 universal dividend funded by compute or AI tax Stated chance: 50% / 45%. Untested
Claim 178 (2038 to 2040): Formal end of China's current succession model; change in Israel's constitutional form Stated chance: 40% / 35%. Untested
Claim 179 (by 2040): Aramco not majority state-owned, or Saudi exports below half of 2025 Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 180 (Oct 2038 to Jul 2039): Mass political violence or insurrection in three G20 countries; a G20 government overthrown by force Stated chance: 55% / 30%. Untested
Claim 181 (2039): A labor or basic-income party wins a G7 national election Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 182 (by end 2040; by 2041): Dollar no longer sole US legal tender; US debt restructured, re-denominated or partly repudiated Stated chance: 35% / 30%. Untested
Claim 183 (2038 to 2042): UN charter revised or UN superseded Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 184 (2040): No top-three system descends from a 2026 frontier lineage Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 185 (Nov 2039 to Dec 2040): Change of paramount leader in China Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 186 (Aug 2039 to Dec 2041): Two hereditary or life-tenure heads of state lose their positions Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 187 (by 2042): A G7 state gives an AI a formal constitutional role (veto, seat, mandated consultation) Stated chance: 30%. Untested
Claim 188 (1 Aug 2039 to 31 Jul 2040): More than half of G20 heads of government out of office Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 189 (2040 to 2041): Euro replaced, re-denominated, or eurozone loses a member Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 190 (by 2041): Google's 1998 chart ends Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 191 (1 Oct 2040 to 31 Mar 2041): A charter for a global body with binding authority over frontier systems, compute or a global commons takes effect Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 192 (by 31 Dec 2041): Three of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, ASML no longer under their founding charts Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 193 (2040 to 2042): Whatever Anthropic became in 2027 to 2028 is itself overturned Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 194 (2040 to 2043): US constitutional amendment ratified or convention held Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 195 (by 2042): US under-40 population majority non-white (census); median worker's income not primarily wages Stated chance: 55% / 40%. Untested
Claim 196 (by end 2042): 1945 UN charter superseded or fundamentally amended Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 197 (2041 to 2042): Regional war or state collapse in the Horn or Great Lakes Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 198 (by 2042): Japan's constitutional order changed (Article 9 or succession law) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 199 (Apr 2042 to Dec 2043): Taiwan Strait military crisis (blockade or strike) Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 200 (by end 2043): Trust in the post-Handover authority below 30% in a cross-national survey Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 201 (2043 to 2044): A successful secession, a new UN member, or partition of a G20 state Stated chance: 45%. Untested
Claim 202 (Nov 2042 to Dec 2043): A cure or durable remission for a major chronic condition approved in a G7 jurisdiction Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 203 (by 2044): Germany leaves the eurozone, or the EU as constituted by Maastricht ends Stated chance: 35%. Untested
Claim 204 (by end 2044): The UN's founding chart ends (new body, new charter) Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 205 (by end 2044): A non-human intelligence recognized by a state as a religious or moral authority; a head of state cites the four resets Stated chance: 40% / 30%. Untested
Claim 206 (2044): The Gulf settlement formally ended or re-founded Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 207 (2044): TSMC's 1987 chart ends Stated chance: 50%. Untested
Claim 208 (2044): India's republic re-founded or formally reorganized Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 209 (Nov to Dec 2044): Confrontation between a global body and a major state Stated chance: 55%. Untested
Claim 210 (by end 2035): A G7 state has a universal, unconditional income in force for all adult residents Stated chance: 40%. Untested
Claim 211 (by end 2040): Same as 210, by 2040 Stated chance: 60%. Untested
Claim 212 (by end 2043): A G20 state or the Handover body allots resources on a scored measure of individual creative, exploratory, scientific or civic contribution, at national scale Stated chance: 35%. Untested
Claim 213 (by end 2044): The stage-3 system is the primary channel of resources for a majority of a G20 population Stated chance: 15%. Untested
Claim 214 (by end 2030): Eir position: a G7 state has a universal, unconditional income in force for all adult residents (stage 2, earlier) Stated chance: 20%. Untested
Claim 215 (by end 2034): Eir position: a G20 state or a network used by a quarter of humanity allots resources on a scored measure of individual contribution (stage 3, earlier) Stated chance: 15%. Untested
Claim 216 (by end 2043): Eir position: the stage-3 system is the primary channel of resources for a majority of a G20 population (stage 4, earlier) Stated chance: 10%. Untested

Version 12 follow-up

Accuracy so far: no confirmed results. 0 pass, 0 partial, 0 fail; 39 untested, 0 inconclusive, 0 awaiting review or disputed.

Prediction status (39)

FC-001a (by 31 Dec 2026): A Millennium Prize claim is accepted by the mathematical community as correct Stated chance: 5%. Untested
FC-001b (by 31 Dec 2026): A second Millennium Prize claim is announced with a public proof Stated chance: 25%. Untested
FC-002 (Oct 2026): A frontier lab reports that a model chose a research direction, ran it and interpreted the results, and that its staff then adopted that direction Stated chance: 20%. Untested
FC-003 (Feb to early Mar 2027): Open weights from a Chinese lab at or near the top of independent capability rankings Stated chance: 35%. Untested
FC-004 (by 30 Jun 2027): Falling employment, not only falling hiring, measured in exposed white-collar occupations Stated chance: 45%. Untested
FC-005 (13 to 15 Jun 2027 (window May to Jul 2027)): The AGI threshold: a published evaluation of agents completing a month of expert work at 50% reliability or a week at 80% Stated chance: 35%. Untested
FC-006 (20 Jun to 31 Jul 2027): Public recognition by a lab, government or expert panel that AGI-level capability exists Stated chance: 15%. Untested
FC-007 (Aug 2027): A grid emergency tied to data center load in a major grid Stated chance: 25%. Untested
FC-008 (Oct 2026 to May 2027): A turning point in the Russia and Ukraine war Stated chance: 25%. Untested
FC-009 (Oct 2027): The first major cyber breach publicly attributed to an autonomous machine intruder Stated chance: 10%. Untested
FC-010 (Nov 2027): A consolidation putting a large share of frontier compute under one roof Stated chance: 10%. Untested
FC-011 (by 31 Dec 2027): Humanoid robots doing paid production work by the thousand in China Stated chance: 55%. Untested
FC-012 (by 30 Jun 2027): About a million driverless paid rides a week in the United States Stated chance: 30%. Untested
FC-013 (by 31 Mar 2028): Agents completing a month of expert work at 80% reliability Stated chance: 30%. Untested
FC-014 (May to Jun 2028): A crisis of authorship that pushes provenance and identity rules into law in at least one major country or the European Union Stated chance: 15%. Untested
FC-015 (by 31 Dec 2028): Full approval of a permanently implanted brain-computer interface Stated chance: 30%. Untested
FC-016 (by 31 Dec 2028): A machine-originated drug, material or physical result, new after 22 September 2026, validated in the laboratory and accepted by its field Stated chance: 60%. Untested
FC-017 (Jan to Feb 2029): A major scandal over simulated dead loved ones used to steer the grieving Stated chance: 15%. Untested
FC-018 (12 Jun 2029 (window May 2029 to Jan 2031)): Superintelligence you can measure: a year of expert work at 80% reliability, and a frontier design made mainly by the systems themselves Stated chance: 25%. Untested
FC-019 (by 31 Dec 2029): Fusion electricity delivered to a grid Stated chance: 20%. Untested
FC-020 (Apr 2030 to Feb 2031): Iran's constitutional order gives way to a new one, or its leadership structure is fundamentally replaced Stated chance: 12%. Untested
FC-021 (Jun to Sep 2030): A full legal framework for machine intelligence adopted in China, the European Union or the United States Stated chance: 15%. Untested
FC-022 (Jul 2030 to Aug 2031): The United States drawn into a major confrontation between states Stated chance: 40%. Untested
FC-023 (Nov 2030): Major religious bodies take formal positions on the moral status of machine minds Stated chance: 20%. Untested
FC-024 (10 to 18 Jun 2031): Charters or constitutional provisions written for superhuman systems Stated chance: 10%. Untested
FC-025 (28 Jun 2032 (window Jun to Dec 2032)): Superintelligence enters the law: a machine system given standing as a party in a formal charter or law Stated chance: 15%. Untested
FC-026 (by 31 Dec 2033): A national government function transferred to machine administration with binding authority Stated chance: 25%. Untested
FC-027 (Oct 2035 to Aug 2036): A worldwide crisis in the legitimacy of human leaders, with attempts in more than one country to take control of administering systems outside legal charters Stated chance: 20%. Untested
FC-028 (2039 to 2042): Structural change of government in at least two of China, the European Union and the UN system Stated chance: 10%. Untested
FC-029a (Oct 2040 to Feb 2041): A charter passing governing functions to machine administration, ratified by vote in at least one major country Stated chance: 12%. Untested
FC-029b (Oct 2040 to Feb 2041): An international treaty setting up machine administration of shared functions Stated chance: 8%. Untested
FC-031 (by 31 Dec 2036): Russia's presidency changes hands Stated chance: 70%. Untested
FC-032 (by 31 Dec 2044): Iran's Islamic Republic is replaced by a new constitutional order Stated chance: 40%. Untested
FC-033 (by 31 Dec 2044): Scotland or Northern Ireland leaves the United Kingdom Stated chance: 22%. Untested
FC-034 (by 31 Dec 2044): Taiwan comes under Beijing's control Stated chance: 23%. Untested
FC-035 (by 31 Dec 2044): At least one state (a UN member, or Taiwan) ends, splits or merges Stated chance: 75%. Untested
FC-036 (2027 to 2032): Openly released models stay within a year of the best closed models Stated chance: 60%. Untested
FC-037 (by 31 Dec 2034): A G20 government bans or licenses the public release of frontier-level model weights Stated chance: 45%. Untested
FC-038 (by 31 Dec 2044): Direct combat between the armed forces of two of the United States, China and Russia Stated chance: 20%. Untested

Original signature and source

Node on US Moon

Original author subjective estimate; not an ephemeris-derived or calibrated probability

second-curve-v7

UNIFIL lapses with no successor force on the ground

Original author estimate: 60%

Original signature and source

Original author subjective estimate; not an ephemeris-derived or calibrated probability

second-curve-v7

S&P 500 does not fall below its April 2027 low

Original author estimate: 65%

Original signature and source

Original author subjective estimate; not an ephemeris-derived or calibrated probability

second-curve-v7

Claim 80 · Nov 2027 to Mar 2028

US-China formal agreement on frontier-model notification or testing

Original author estimate: 50%

Original signature and source

Pluto conjunct North Node

Original author subjective estimate; not an ephemeris-derived or calibrated probability

second-curve-v7

Eir position: a G20 state or a network used by a quarter of humanity allots resources on a scored measure of individual contribution (stage 3, earlier)

Original author estimate: 15%

Original signature and source

Jupiter conjunct Pluto in Aquarius 4 Feb 2033

Original author subjective estimate; not an ephemeris-derived or calibrated probability

second-curve-v7

Claim 216 · by end 2043

Eir position: the stage-3 system is the primary channel of resources for a majority of a G20 population (stage 4, earlier)

Original author estimate: 10%

Original signature and source

The Handover 31 Oct 2040; Saturn exalted sidereal Libra 2041 to 2043

Original author subjective estimate; not an ephemeris-derived or calibrated probability

second-curve-v7